State Economic Watch

A new report from the Rhode Island Public Expenditures Council finds that the state’s economic growth falls short of the US average on several measures. The report, Rhode Island 2026 Economic Prosperity Scorecard , uses publicly available data on state GDP, income and cost of living to show that Rhode Island’s GDP growth is lagging both that of its neighboring New England states and of the U.S as a whole. The study’s authors attribute some of this underperformance to the high percentage of the state’s GDP that is generated by health and education, which they consider to be low productivity sectors. The study also finds that while Rhode Island’s personal income measures put it in the top half of all states, the state’s relatively high cost of living drops its real personal income ranking to the bottom third of states.

The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index , published by the University of Florida’s Survey Research Center, declined for the second consecutive month in April. The index fell to 74.6 in April from 78.1 in March, but that's still better than the 72 level reported for April 2025. For context, the recent peak for this index was 79.3 in February 2026. The internals of the survey are more interesting than the top line, wth big disparities in age and income reported. For example the sentiment measure for the age 60 and over cohort is 81.9, while for those under 60 it's 68.7. Similarly, those with incomes of $50K and above report a 80.2 sentiment index, while for those with income under $50K, it’s 58.5. Further, the April 2026 sentiment indexes for the 60+ and $50K+ groups were higher than a year ago, but for the under 60 and under $50K groups, they were lower. The “personal financial situation now compared to a year ago” question produced the same response pattern. It’s important to note...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes remained in a lackluster range in February. According to today’s release by the Philadelphia Fed, the three-month diffusion index increased slightly to 54 from a revised 50 in January. The three-month index has been stuck in a tepid range since November. The more volatile one-month diffusion index rose to 36 in February from a revised 22 in January. In February, Connecticut joined the group of states posting the most significant three-month declines, along with Montana and West Virginia, while California, Arizona, and Indiana posted the largest increases. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

This lengthy article posted by Governing is well worth spending some time on. It’s a deep dive into the conversion of farmland in California’s Central Valley to renewable energy generation. Farmers in the Central Valley are being forced to take portions of their farmland out of production because of water use restrictions. In response, the proposed Valley Clean Infrastructure Plan will convert some of this fallowed land to utility-scale solar production. The article provides a good historical background and goes into some detail about transmission and other challenges facing the project. 

  The pace of service sector activity growth in the Tenth Federal Reserve District slowed notably in April according to the latest Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Services Survey . The top line services composite index (SA) fell to 3 in April from 15 in March and 6 in February, and the general revenue/sales index fell to 6 from 18. All three of the employment indexes, employee count, hours worked, and part-time employment fell into negative territory, while the wages index increased from 16 to 22. Nevertheless, the six-month expectations composite index rose for the second consecutive month, to 22 in April from 17 in March, while revenue/sales expectations increased soundly from 20 to 34. The employee and hours worked indexes both fell slightly m/mn, but the part-time employment expectations index increased to 10 from 4. Finally, capex expectations sank to a just barely positive 1 from 19 in the prior month.

Most of the components of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Manufacturing Survey dipped slightly in April but remained in positive territory. The survey’s top line composite index was reported at 10 for April compared to 11 in March and 5 in February, but this was still higher than the -2 reported for April 2025. Almost all of the component indexes (SA) of the survey were lower m/m except for prices paid and inventory. The only index to post negative was new orders for export, which came in at -3. Employee count fell to 2 in April from 7 in March. The six-month expectations indexes were mostly higher in April, but capex and average workweek fell slightly. Nevertheless, all of the expectation indexes were in positive territory in April.