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BLS: Federal Payroll Cuts Continued to Impact DC and MD in January

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The January 2026 State Employment Report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics contained little in the way of meaningful content. According to the statistics released today, state labor markets remained stagnant in January. Payrolls were flat in the vast majority of states both on a m/m and y/y basis. Unemployment rates were largely unchanged m/m, but there was some notable movement y/y, with 14 states posting increases. The largest y/y u-rate increase was posted by Delaware, which saw its rate rise 1.3% to 5.4%. Indiana and Ohio saw their u-rates decline slightly. Monthly payroll gains were posted by California, Texas, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, while DC saw a decline. Over the year, payrolls were up in California, Texas, South Carolina and Nevada, and down in DC and Maryland. Increases in health and education employment boosted most state numbers, but Texas, South Carolina and Nevada also saw gains from construction. DC and Maryland continued to suffer from the federal employment ...
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Alaska’s 65+ Population Increasing Rapidly

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The most recent edition of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s  Alaska Economic Trends publication analyzes the changes in the state’s population profile since 2000, and notes the significant increase in the percentage of the population age 65 and older. The number of 65+ residents in Alaska has increased to approximately 120,000, or 15% of the population currently, from under 40,000 and about 5% of the population in 2000. Alaska’s natural rate of population growth has decreased during this period as the number of deaths has grown while births have declined. This article from the Anchorage Daily News , via the Governing website, describes the situation in more detail. 
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Dallas Fed Raises 2026 Employment Projection for Texas

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has increased its estimate for Texas employment growth in 2026. It now projects growth of 1.9% through December 2026, with an 80% confidence band of 1.1% to 2.7%. The growth estimate equates to 278,400 new jobs. In its prior forecast of February 6, 2026, the Dallas Fed projected 2026 job growth of 1.1% or 154,600 new jobs. The Dallas Fed’s upgraded growth projection is due, in part, to an increase in its Texas Leading Index in the three-month period ending January.
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Oregon: Portland Airport Arrivals From Canada Down 32%

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According to a report in the Oregon Capital Chronicle , international arrivals to Portland International Airport fell 21% from 2024 to 2025. However, travelers from  Canada, historically the state’s largest source of international tourism, fell 32% over the same period. Presumably, there was a similar decline in the number of tourists who drove from Canada to Oregon, but that statistic isn’t addressed in the article.
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West Virginia: Personal Income Tax Rate Cut 5%

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  Governor Patrick Morrisey signed legislation this week to cut West Virginia's personal income tax rate 5%. It was the third such PIT reduction since 2023. The state’s top rate will fall to 4.58% from 4.82%. The tax package will cost approximately $230 million. Prior to the initial 21% rate cut in 2023, the top PIT rate was 6.5%.
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January Case-Shiller Points to Continued Softening in the US Housing Market

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Home price appreciation continued to decelerate in January, according to this morning’s release of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index increased only 0.9% y/y in January, compared to the 1.1% increase posted in December. The National  Index value hit its most recent peak in June 2025 and has been declining since then. According to the press release, the index rose 2.2% in the first six months of the most recent period, and fell 1.3% in the second six months. Meaningful y/y increases continue to be confined to New York, Chicago, Cleveland and Minneapolis, while the largest y/y declines remain concentrated in the southern and southwestern areas. Tampa, Phoenix, Denver, and Dallas each saw y/y declines of 1.5% or greater, while Las Vegas, Miami and Portland posted y/y declines of approximately 1%.
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Census: Southeast has Fastest Growing Counties

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The US Census Bureau is out with its Vintage 2025 county and metro area population estimates. In its analysis, Census found that the majority of US counties experienced slow to negative population growth between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025. It cites negative international migration as the principal cause of this trend. However, for the largest counties (1 million and above), negative net domestic migration was also a key factor. Census figures show a 6.27 per 1,000 reduction in population from negative net domestic migration in those counties, resulting in a growth rate of only 0.3% for the group during the 12 months ending July 1, 2025, compared to a 1.1% rate in 2024. While counties of all sizes generally experienced slower growth in the 2025 period compared to that of 2024, this large county cohort saw the most significant decline. Finally, Census determined that the fastest growing counties were located “along the southeast coast of the United States in Florida, Georgia, South C...
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