State Economic Watch

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes were solid again in June, with the three-month diffusion index remaining at 84, equal to the reading in May, and only slightly lower than the 92 posted in April. The indexes increased in 46 states with only Connecticut, Kentucky, Hawaii and Alabama posting index declines over the three-month period. The indexes of Alabama and Kentucky have declined each month since March, while Connecticut’s index fell m/m in April, but has remained steady since then. Hawaii’s index hit it’s recent peak in April before declining modestly in May and June. Eleven states posted over 1.0% increases over the last three months, led by West Virginia and Delaware. The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s July Services Survey reflects a modest increase in activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. The top line composite index increased to 14 in July from 5 in June. The general revenue/sales index also rose moderately to 19  from 3. Employee count ticked up minimally to 4 from 1 but the hours worked index declined from 8 in June to -1 in July. Part time employment fell from 8 to -5, but this index has been negative to barely positive for the last year. The six-month expectations indexes were generally flat m/m, with the composite and general revenue/sales indexes remaining in solidly positive territory at 24 and 39 respectively.

The Texas Manufacturing Index Survey indicated continued growth in the state's manufacturing sector in July. The production index increased six points m/m to 10.1. New orders also increased. The six month expectations indexes were generally unchanged m/m but remained in solidly positive territory. Both the current and expectations employment indexes were somewhat lower, but the July survey’s special question indicated that 50% of employers are actively looking to hire workers, compared to 44% the last time this question was asked in January.

Manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District increased significantly in July according to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The top line general business activity index increased +31.1 points m/m in July to +41.4. New orders and shipments also moved higher, with the new orders index increasing to +37 in July from +27.3 in June, and shipments index increasing to +33.7 from +14.9 in the prior month. The employee count index moved slightly higher m/m, while the average workweek moved into positive territory to +14 from -6.5 in June. In contrast, the six-month forward expectations indexes all moved lower m/m but remained in positive territory.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey reflected an increase in activity in July, with the headline general business conditions index increasing 9.9 points m/m to 15.6. New orders and shipments both moved sharply higher, while the employment indexes were mixed, with employee count up slightly and hours worked down somewhat. Finally, the six-month forward looking indexes were also mixed, with the general business conditions expectations index falling 2.2 points m/m to a still positive 27.9. The new orders and shipments expectations indexes were essentially unchanged but positive, while the capex expectations index moved modestly higher to 15 from 10.9 in June. However, the employment expectations indexes both moved lower, with the employee count index falling 6.5 points to 14,4 and the average workweek index sliding 5.9 points to 2.0. 

Washington Governor Bob Ferguson has established a new Economic Development Council for the state. The Council is composed of 26 business and government leaders and will “identify practical actions that strengthen Washington’s economy, expand opportunity and help more Washingtonians succeed”. You can find a link to the press release from the Governor’s office here .