State Economic Watch

The North Dakota Industrial Commission has authorized the state-owned Bank of North Dakota to increase its allocation to the state’s Farm Financial Stability Program by $100 million, bringing the Program’s total allocation to $500 million. Established last year, the Program is designed to allow farmers and ranchers to restructure their debt at low interest rates and to convert operating losses into loans. North Dakota farmers have been under significant financial pressure due several factors, most notably low crop prices and increased operating costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey continued to paint a grim picture of the regional service sector in March. The survey, taken from March 2 through March 9, produced a top line business activity index of -22.6, slightly better than the -25.7 print in February, but still firmly in negative territory. The business climate index fell 4.5 points to -46.2, and the employment index remained negative at -8.5 compared to the prior month’s -9.7. Further, service sector expectations continued to erode in March. The six-month forward business activity expectations index fell to 12.7 from 17.5 in February, as did the business climate expectations index, which fell to -10.6 from -3.9. Additionally, the six-month forward employment index was essentially unchanged in March at 14.9 compared to February’s 15.7. Capex was the only real bright spot, and minimally at that, with its associated forward looking-index increasing 3.8 points to 9.8.

The 65-turbine offshore Revolution Wind project made its initial delivery power to the regional grid last week. The project, located off the coast of Rhode Island, is currently 93% complete and is scheduled to be capable of delivering its total 704 MW nameplate capacity sometime in 2H2026. At full capacity, it is estimated to be able to provide power to 350,000 homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut. A similar project, the 62-turbine Vineyard Wind , saw its final blade installed last Friday.

Anyone who has given even passing attention to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports in recent years knows that the education and healthcare sector has been a significant driver of employment growth nationally. A report released yesterday by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli found that, at least in New York State, this is definitely the case. According to the report, 85% of all jobs in the state in 2024 were in the services sector, while over 20% of all payrolls were in healthcare, and another 10% in education. Additionally, the report finds that employment in healthcare and social assistance increased over 63% from 2000 to 2024.

Alcoa has begun demolishing the last of the big Northwest aluminum smelters. The Intalco plant in Washington State was opened in 1966. It was the last of the region's ten aluminum smelters to open. The industry established itself in the Northwest in the 1940s to take advantage of cheap Columbia River hydro power. As that advantage eroded, these high energy consumption plants became uneconomic. Some of the abandoned sites are being repurposed, or are proposed to be repurposed, as data centers, energy storage facilities, or clean energy production facilities, although environmental cleanup remains a consideration. This article from the Oregon Capital Chronicle discusses the situation in some detail.

Today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed little change in manufacturing activity in New York State in early March. Most of the indices drifted lower, but only slightly. The survey’s headline general business conditions index inched into negative territory in March at -0.2 compared to February’s 7.1 reading. The new orders index was little changed m/m, and the shipments index eased to -6.9 from -1.0 in February. On the employment front, the employee index moved slightly higher, while the average workweek moved slightly lower. The six-month expectations indexes generally moved modestly lower m/m, but the overall business conditions expectations index remained positive at 31. The one index bucking the downward drift was capex expectations, which rose to 21.6 from 18.2 in February. The survey was taken by the New York Fed between March 2 and March 9.