State Economic Watch

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indexes were mixed in March. According to this morning’s release, the three-month diffusion index fell to 60 in March from 70 in February. However, we note that the February figure was revised up from the originally reported 54. The three-month index has been in this tepid 50-70 range since July 2025. North Dakota and Indiana posted the strongest three-month index gains in March, while Hawaii and Connecticut saw the biggest declines. One notable element in the March report is the movement in the volatile one-month diffusion index. This index increased sharply in March to 74 from a revised 30 in February. To put this into some context, the one-month diffusion index has bounced dramatically from a low of 26 to a high of 90 over the last five months.  The exhibit below is reproduced from the press release.

An interesting article this week in KFF Health News discusses some of the avenues that states are exploring to try to shore up the finances of community and other rural and urban hospitals, many of which are in a state of financial distress because of Medicaid funding cutbacks at the federal level. A basket of aid options including loans, grants and debt forgiveness are being contemplated or implemented by a number of states. You can find a link to the article here . 

In the latest edition of the Rocky Mountain Economist , the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City takes a deep dive into the economics behind the recent spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, and notes that there may be a silver lining in all of this for the Rocky Mountain energy producing states. In the article, the KC Fed’s economists illustrate the correlation between oil prices and severance tax collections, and note that New Mexico and Wyoming in particular stand to benefit, from a budgetary perspective, from the current conflict-driven increases in oil prices. The below exhibit is reproduced from the KC Fed’s article. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Another incredibly boring State Employment Report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The current US low hire/low fire economy is clearly reflected in these state numbers. According to today’s BLS report there was no meaningful m/m change in state unemployment rates in March. Over the year, only Connecticut, Delaware, and Florida posted u-rate increases of over 1%. Of the three, Florida is notable for seeing a significant y/y increase in the number of unemployed, from approximately 403,000 in March 2025, to an estimated 523,000 in March 2026. However, Florida did see a m/m increase in employment in March of 28,100, primarily from the construction and business services sectors. The other states seeing statistically meaningful NFP increases in March were Texas and Tennessee. On a y/y basis, payrolls in Maryland, DC continue to suffer from reductions in government employment, while Nevada posted the largest y/y percentage gain in total employment, thanks principally to growth in the ...

PJM Interconnection says it has received applications for 811 projects, totaling 220 GW, to connect to the grid. PJM redesigned its interconnection process in 2023 and the window for this first round of new applicants closed on April 27, 2026. PJM says its new process moves it from the “prior first-come, first-served model with a first-ready, first-served approach”. The applications include, among others, those for natural gas, solar, wind, storage, nuclear generation, and one for a fusion power facility. You can find a link to PJM’s press release here .   

The results of the most recent Washington Employers Survey from the Association of Washington Businesses reflect a continued erosion of sentiment among the state’s businesses. According to the survey, conducted April 8-22, 24% of Washington State businesses are considering relocating to another state. That’s an increase of seven percentage points since the last quarterly survey. Similarly, the number of business leaders considering moving their personal residences out of Washington State rose from 44% to 55%. Further, expansion of existing operations in Washington State is looking less likely, with only only 9% of businesses considering expanding in-state compared to 14% in the last survey, while 38% plan to expand their businesses in another state, up from 30% last quarter. Finally, only 7% consider the state’s economy to be strong, down three percentage points from the last survey. Taxes are cited as the number one business challenge by 72% of the respondents, an increase of eight p...