State Economic Watch

This morning, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased in 35 states in 4Q2025, but declined in 13 states and the District of Columbia. The biggest gains were seen in the Dakotas, with North Dakota posting an annualized growth rate of 3.8% and South Dakota 3.0%. Minnesota had the third highest growth rate at 2.2%. Economic growth in the Dakotas was principally driven by strong gains in the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting category. In North Dakota’s case, the 4Q growth in that sector of +3.42% represented a substantial snapback from the -2.76 reported in 3Q. DC, Maryland and Virginia led the way on the downside with real GDP declines of 8.3%, 3.3% and 1.8%, respectively, and in each case, a sharp decline in the Federal Civilian category was the principal reason. The below exhibit is from this morning’s BEA press release.  

The January 2026 State Employment Report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics contained little in the way of meaningful content. According to the statistics released today, state labor markets remained stagnant in January. Payrolls were flat in the vast majority of states both on a m/m and y/y basis. Unemployment rates were largely unchanged m/m, but there was some notable movement y/y, with 14 states posting increases. The largest y/y u-rate increase was posted by Delaware, which saw its rate rise 1.3% to 5.4%. Indiana and Ohio saw their u-rates decline slightly. Monthly payroll gains were posted by California, Texas, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, while DC saw a decline. Over the year, payrolls were up in California, Texas, South Carolina and Nevada, and down in DC and Maryland. Increases in health and education employment boosted most state numbers, but Texas, South Carolina and Nevada also saw gains from construction. DC and Maryland continued to suffer from the federal employment ...

The most recent edition of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s  Alaska Economic Trends publication analyzes the changes in the state’s population profile since 2000, and notes the significant increase in the percentage of the population age 65 and older. The number of 65+ residents in Alaska has increased to approximately 120,000, or 15% of the population currently, from under 40,000 and about 5% of the population in 2000. Alaska’s natural rate of population growth has decreased during this period as the number of deaths has grown while births have declined. This article from the Anchorage Daily News , via the Governing website, describes the situation in more detail. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has increased its estimate for Texas employment growth in 2026. It now projects growth of 1.9% through December 2026, with an 80% confidence band of 1.1% to 2.7%. The growth estimate equates to 278,400 new jobs. In its prior forecast of February 6, 2026, the Dallas Fed projected 2026 job growth of 1.1% or 154,600 new jobs. The Dallas Fed’s upgraded growth projection is due, in part, to an increase in its Texas Leading Index in the three-month period ending January.

According to a report in the Oregon Capital Chronicle , international arrivals to Portland International Airport fell 21% from 2024 to 2025. However, travelers from  Canada, historically the state’s largest source of international tourism, fell 32% over the same period. Presumably, there was a similar decline in the number of tourists who drove from Canada to Oregon, but that statistic isn’t addressed in the article.

  Governor Patrick Morrisey signed legislation this week to cut West Virginia's personal income tax rate 5%. It was the third such PIT reduction since 2023. The state’s top rate will fall to 4.58% from 4.82%. The tax package will cost approximately $230 million. Prior to the initial 21% rate cut in 2023, the top PIT rate was 6.5%.